Long-term predictions are essentially random — a lot can happen in the next 20 years or so, so any predictions made about are meaningless. Its aging population is, of course, a concern. Inflation is threatening the long-term growth. The ruling party is good enough to avoid a hard landing. India The socialist schemes might take India down to the path of the welfare state of Brazil in India is a high context society like Latin Americas is misleading for most foreigners.
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Start your review of Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles Write a review Dec 05, Mustufa rated it did not like it Due to tremendous hype about this book, I read it but I was surprised that it is nothing but some random notes on various economies of the world. Anyone who reads a newspaper daily will find this book as a nothing but the bits and pieces collected from the leisurely articles on economics written to fill the boringness of a Sunday.
The chapters on China, India, Russia and Brazil are lack depth and these are totally Due to tremendous hype about this book, I read it but I was surprised that it is nothing but some random notes on various economies of the world. The chapters on China, India, Russia and Brazil are lack depth and these are totally outdated.
The writer seems to neglect the geographical and the climatic conditions of Brazil. How can a nation have cemented roads all the year long in the middle of Amazonian forest? With a per capital income of USD Then when should a country focus on Education and the Medical needs of its people? Brazil started investing in welfare when the per capital increased from USD Does it still need to wait?
The author feels that the Brazilian real is overvalued due to which its exports have suffered. But Brazil still continues to be the largest exporter of Iron Ore. Large iron and manganese reserves are important sources of industrial raw materials and export earnings.
Such comparisions are driving an informed reader, insane. Author mentions that China is today, what Japan was in s. He neglects the size of two countries and also neglects that fact that Japan was never cheap in technological products but China was able to deliver cheap tech.
Japan never invested in the African countries but China has. New manpower is not available as freely as earlier. Due to the migration of villagers into the cities, the housing price in the cities have gone up very high. Now, just consider, how can an upmarket residential price go up because of the labourers? This is partially true because Chinese economny is export oriented and it must keep the production cost low.
But who has prevented China to employ the people from Mongolia? Secondly, lot of Chinese industries have already started migrating to Vietnam, Combodia and even Africa. Author has totally forgotten this fact. Has any nation prevented it from doing this? This happens everywhere. Why single out China? It is surprising that the author has linked the local politics to influence the choice of people over commodities. The consumer tastes of India cannot be as homogenous as other countries but the global brands have same acceptance everywhere in India.
Even a child in India knows that there is more undocumented money in India than on the Govt. If you closely study the GDP of Indian states, you will find a comparable growth. Look at the per capita of Bihar. How can he say that Bihar and UP offers better economic possibilities than Tamilnadu which already has a high per capital with a steady growth rate. It is easier grow when the base is very low compared to a higher base. About Russia: The author is not very optimistic about Russia either.
Boris Yeltsin was drinking hard and firing top ministers during 90s and running a national debt. One of the biggest failures of Yeltsin was privatization of state industries. Investing in an industry is a long term process. The good result that Putin achieved was because Yeltsin initiated the privatisation. You cannot expect overnight profits in any business. Central and local government expenditures are about equal in Russia.
Fiscal policy has been very disciplined since the debt crisis. The overall budget surplus for was 2. Much of this growth, which exceeded most expectations for the third consecutive year, was driven by consumption demand. Low oil prices would mean that the Russian economy would not achieve its projected growth. However, high oil prices also would have negative economic effects, as they would cause the ruble to continue to appreciate and make Russian exports less competitive. Funding for the four "national projects", undertakings in agriculture, education, housing and healthcare, will increase by 85 billion roubles over the figure to billion rubles.
After reading this book, I felt like reading random articles based on half baked research. It was a gross disappointment for me.
Book Summary: Breakout Nations by Ruchir Sharma
Career[ edit ] Sharma has told interviewers he spent his early school years in Mumbai , Delhi , and Singapore. His writings attracted the attention of Morgan Stanley, which hired him in its Mumbai office in In he moved to the New York office, which remains his base today. In he became head of the team. The book discusses his views on Emerging Markets and his travel through these countries. He used those travels as the basis for his monthly columns in The Economic Times, and later became a regular columnist for Newsweek International, as well a contributor to the Wall Street Journal and other global publications. Typically, when an emerging economy gets hot, it will grow fast for a decade, maybe two, then backslide when its leaders grow complacent.
Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles
The new rule is to forecast so far in the future, no one will know you got it wrong. The next economic success stories will not be where we think they are. In this provocative new book, Sharma analyses why the basic laws of economic gravity such as the law of large numbers, which says that the richer you are the harder it is to grow your wealth at a rapid pace are already pulling China, Russia, Brazil and other vast emerging markets back to earth. To understand which nations will thrive and which will falter in a world reshaped by slower growth, it is time to start looking at the emerging markets as individual cases. Sharma argues that we must abandon our current obsession with global macro trends and the fad for all-embracing theories. He offers instead a more discerning, nuanced view, identifying specific factors - economic, political, social - which will make for slow or fast growth. As the years of unbelievably swift growth draw to their close, this book shows us how it is time for both investors and economists to halt their blind thrust towards an impossible future.
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